Playoffs and Tiebreakers

[Freak]

New, for the first time in a long time.

Playoffs
Two division winners get a bye, next four best teams play each other (6@3, 5@4). Crossover remains in effect for 7th over 6th if they finish CLEARLY ahead of them. That is, a tie goes to the team who belongs in that conference automatically.

Tiebreakers
We're going to maintain the NFL model of ranking teams within a division first, and then within a conference second.

1. Head To Head
2. Division Record (if all teams are in the same division)
3. Common Opponents Record (they'll play at least two other opponents in common, and as many as six)
4. COSR (in other words, WHICH common opponents they each beat)
5. Strength of Schedule.
6. Net points in head to head (who beat who by more)
7. Net points in division games.
8. Net points in common games.
9. Coin Toss

My argument for SoS above Net Points is that I don't want to penalize defensive teams. If the '00 Ravens and '07 Patriots played two games, where each destroys the other once, the Ravens would win 19-0, while the Pats would win 41-10. I'm not convinced that makes either better then the other, but it does serve as a useful tiebreaker at the end.

Draft Tiebreakers
Alright, we're starting to get ridiculous tiebreakers in the draft class (the league had five 10-6 teams, one in each division and two in the Thorpe this year), so we're going to make a simpler rule for that. As always, the exceptions are the two BAB teams, where the runner up drafts 19th and the champion 20th. Other then that, we'll do what the NFL does and use Strength of Schedule to break ties. Failing that we'll use head to head, and then a coin toss (since we can't guarantee they've played each other, and I don't care for different tiebreakers at different points of the same process). The exception to this is that a non playoff team will draft ahead of any playoff teams tied with it.

[Freak]

*Common Opponents Strength Ratio (aka COSR) - A team receives one point per win that a defeated common opponent has.

Example:

5-5 California is tied with 5-5 Miami.

Their six common games are against Las Vegas, Portland, Jackson, and Birmingham.

California has beaten 7-3 Las Vegas once, and received 1 * 7 = 7 points for this.

California has also beaten 6-4 Portland twice, and receives 2 * 6 = 12 points for that.

California lost its other game against LV, as well as its games against Jackson and Birmingham, to finish with a COSR of 19.

Miami lost to Las Vegas, but beat Portland, receiving 6 points for that. They also swept 3-7 Birmingham, receiving 2 * 3 = 6 points for that. Finally, sweeping 3-7 Jackson nets them 2 * 3 = 6 points. Their COSR is 18, and since California's is higher at 19, California, despite going 3-3 to Miami's 5-1 in six common games, is rewarded for defeating the higher-ranked teams by winning the tiebreaker.

[justinz007]

I see your overly complicated formula, and raise you:

ψ(x) = log p(x) + log p(√2 x) + log p(√3 x) + . . .

This should be how we determine playoff teams, that way everyone will be as confused as I am

[justinz007]

Draft Tiebreakers
Alright, we're starting to get ridiculous tiebreakers in the draft class (the league had five 10-6 teams, one in each division and two in the Thorpe this year), so we're going to make a simpler rule for that. As always, the exceptions are the two BAB teams, where the runner up drafts 19th and the champion 20th. Other then that, we'll do what the NFL does and use Strength of Schedule to break ties. Failing that we'll use head to head, and then a coin toss (since we can't guarantee they've played each other, and I don't care for different tiebreakers at different points of the same process). The exception to this is that a non playoff team will draft ahead of any playoff teams tied with it.

Does the harder schedule pick higher or lower?

[JoeKnows]

My guess is lower, since you do the tiebreakers to determine who's "better," and then flip it upside down to determine the draft order.

[justinz007]

That's what I figured, but I wanted to confirm, otherwise I'll be the first in line to argue for whichever way benefits me at the end of the year.

[JoeKnows]

It's how I had to do it for USFL, where the #2 team in the draft order had a weaker schedule AND beat the #3 team in the draft order, but I also have an NFL setup, so strength of schedule won the day.

[Freak]

What Joe said, yes. The tiebreaker is used to determine the better team, which then picks later.

[justinz007]

Another option could be a radical change to how the draft order is decided. You could consider multiple years, say the last 3 years, to really get a feel for the teams health, and that would also help to minimize "hiccups" in the software from ruining a teams chances for the next year, especially if they faced a steep decline and a very good year (ala Texas).

[Freak]

Can we meander that over to the Suggestion Thread? I think it's a very interesting idea, I just want to keep this one to explanation of the existing system.

[justinz007]

Umm, sure. . . Do I have the means to meander, or is that your department?

[JoeKnows]

Copy and paste works.

[Freak]

Step 2 clarified with new addition as in bold below.

2. Division Record (if all teams are in the same division)

[Catseyes]

My head hurts.

[Freak]

Keep winning and it won't matter.